Nobel prize for economics awarded to two Americans, Hall and Woodford, for work on New Keynesian models – business live

On 12 October 2026, the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences was announced, awarding the Nobel prize for economics to two American scholars, Robert Hall and Michael Woodford. The award recognised their contributions to the microeconomic foundations of macroeconomic stabilisation, a core element of New Keynesian models that link individual behaviour to aggregate economic outcomes. The announcement came shortly after a period of heightened activity in betting markets that track Nobel predictions. Approximately 45 minutes before the official release, market participants observed notable movement in odds, with Sidney Winter, professor emeritus of management at the Wharton School, and Lawrence Katz, the Elisabeth Allison Professor of Economics at Harvard University, appearing prominently on Polymarket’s betting platform. Although the market was described as very volatile, these names were among those most frequently cited as potential laureates earlier in the day. The Guardian’s business live feed, authored by Graeme Wearden, reported the award and the surrounding betting dynamics, noting that the prize highlights the importance of rigorous micro‑foundations for macro‑policy design. The article situates the award within broader economic discussions, referencing ongoing concerns about growth, inflation, oil prices, and central bank actions, though the primary focus remains on the laureates’ scholarly impact. The piece was published at 13:41 UTC and is categorized under Business, reflecting the intersection of academic economics and market expectations surrounding the Nobel announcement.